Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage.
Princeton University Press 2001
The resulting estimate gives a peak production year of 2003 and a total eventual oil recovery of 2.12 trillion barrels. The peak year, 2003, is the same year that we got by fitting Campbell’s 1.8-trillion-barrel estimate to the production history. Other published estimates, using variations on Hubbert’s methods, give peak years from 2004 to 2009. I honestly do not have an opinion as to the exact date for two reasons: (1) the revisions of OPEC reserves may or may not reflect reality; (2) OPEC production capacities are closely guarded secrets. If your country has surplus production capacity you are A Player in the global oil game. If your wells are currently producing to capacity, you are merely a spectator.
This much is certain: no initiative put in place starting today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year. No Caspian Sea exploration, no drilling in the South China Sea, no SUV replacements, no renewable energy projects can be brought on at a sufficient rate to avoid a bidding war for the remaining oil. At least, let’s hope that the war is waged with cash instead of with nuclear warheads.